September 24, 2004
Vote or....?
With a little more than five weeks until the Presidential Elections, Gothamist would like to remind you to register to vote. In New York, there are now two weeks left until the October 8th deadline to register for the general elections on November 2nd.
While New York is likely to go to John Kerry, there are many states that are still in the balance, including New Jersey. The Electoral Vote Predictor, which predicts the outcome of the election using published polling numbers, currently has George Bush winning 311-217.
Rock the Vote says that 32 states have deadlines for voter registration from October 2-8, with New Jersey's being the 2nd and New York on the 8th. Connecticut's deadline is October 19th. Find out when your deadline is here.
There are a lot of slogans out there, from P.Diddy's "Vote or Die", to MTV's "Choose or Lose", and the Board of Election's "Vote. Or Liberty is History." Clearly, they are trying to emphasize something here. To say this election is important is an understatement, since many are saying that this election is the most important election in history.
If you're in NYC, register with the Board of Elections, otherwise, check out Rock the Vote for information on your state. And if you have yet to make a decision on who to vote for, Larry David has a message for you.
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RESPECT:
http://www.ni9e.com/usps.html
I'm voting for that Net Zero guy.
I would argue that this election, much like the last, is NOT all that important. Assuming that the general public is almost evenly divided, then why does anyone's vote really matter...
Say, for example, that everyone in the US was agreed that it is wrong to step on babies, and the only way to prevent baby-squishing was if everyone registered their anti-baby-squish vote. In that instance, it is very important that everyone votes--essential.
Now, what if the choice was whether we all collectively prefer brown socks versus black socks, and the US was split 50/50. In that case, given an anonymous voter--whose opinion you did not know--it is not that important whether that person votes, because the vote could go either way...
foolish, yes....I'm just trying to justify my apathy and pick out some socks for my big date tonight....
IF, if you haven't made up your mind by now, you haven't been paying attention.
Books to read before the election:
Imperial Hubris, by Anonymous.
Against All Enemies, by Richard Clarke.
We can head towards better relations with our neighbors on this planet or we can head towards more acts of terror and possible nuclear terrorism. Those two possibilities would rank this election as perhaps the most important in history, since the wrong choices could lead to the end of history.
WHAT?? New Jersey is in play?? When/how did this happen? This falls on the heels of a NYT article that Kerry is struggling among women voters - another traditional Democratic base that Kerry needs.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/22/politics/campaign/22women.html
I can't imagine you want to see articles like this 5 weeks before the election if you're the challenger. I mean, he HAS to win NJ, right?
Well, maybe not the end of history so much as the possible end of American history as we know it. (Remember, one of the reasons the Soviet Union collapsed was because their military was overextended--kinda like our when we go invading countries without miltary support from other countries.)
Even more than that, we have to worry about the end of the separation of Church and State in the U.S. So unless you want creationism taught in science classes, and have adultery (including pre-marital sex) turned into a capital crime, grow up and spend the big 10 minutes it takes to register and the big 20 minutes it takes to go to your polling station and vote.
I've been swept up by the recent idea that since the pollsters aren't calling people with cell phones, an accurate reflection of popular opinion isn't being gathered.
Also, Gore won the popular vote last time without all the anti-republican anger. I think Kerry will do just fine in November.
check out the excellent piece on Kottke.com today - I need your help getting the word out regarding the US presidential elections
and on CityRag - How to Swing pt. 1
i believe the new jersey thing was in the paper on the same day that the women voters was.
yes, i forgot to link the kottke thing. i even thought, "hmm, i should link that" when i saw it this morning.
as a reminder for all transients who are registered in other states, remember to apply for absentee ballots. I used this site and it generated a custom PDF for me which I just mailed to my county clerks office. it couldn't have been simpler and it only takes a couple of minutes.
http://www.declareyourself.com/
Don't forget about vote pairing.
http://www.votepair.com
check out votergasm.com
they've done great things in their short existence, registered well over six thousand new voters. and it's a fun site to explore....
The Wall Street's Zogby Interactive Analysis paints a very different picture:
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-an0920.html?mod=home_interactive_features
They show Kerry ahead, 297-241.
The methedology of the electoral vote predictor is highly questionable. You can't take polls done in various states with wildly different methedologies and attempt to create a national composite from them. At least if you use a poll that's uniform on nationally but has per-state data, you can have a consistent idea what the potential sources of bias or error are, such as party and age weighting, survey method, and how they weight for "likely voters" if at all.
There's no question this is going to be a wildly close election. I suspect much of it will be determined at the debates.
I don't get it. Are you saying that this is an important election because "many are saying that this election is the most important election in history", or are you saying it's important because you're afraid of making an understatement? If it's the former: I wouldn't believe everything you read. As for the latter... oh, nevermind.